APLIKASI PREDIKSI PERTUMBUHAN UMAT DI PAROKI ST. MARIA ASSUMPTA KUPANG
Keywords:Application, Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average, Prediction, People’s Growth
Santa Maria Assumpta Parish Kupang is a parish within the Archdiocese of Kupang. Every year the growth of the people in this parish has increased. Therefore, the Parish predicts the growth of the people as a reference for the data on the growth of the people at the Santa Maria Assumpta Parish, Kupang. In predicting the growth of the faithful each year, the parish still uses an intuitive method, namely by looking at the development of the congregation's data received from each KUB chairman without analyzing some of the data in the previous year. This resulted in uneven distribution of KUB divisions, distribution of choir dependents and church cleaning. Sometimes the parish is also still overwhelmed in preparing supporting facilities and infrastructure when the number of parishioners experiences a large enough increase. In addition, the parish is also difficult to predict the number of people in one mass so that the development of the parish is hampered because the number of seats is based on the number of people so that services at the Santa Maria Assumpta Parish are ineffective. The purpose of this study was to build an Application for Predicting the Growth of People in Santa Maria Assumpta Parish Kupang. The prediction method used by the author to predict the growth of the people is the Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Methods. The expected results in this study are that it can make it easier for parish administrators to predict the growth of the people every year, so that the parish can prepare everything if there is a surge in people and can provide an overview of the condition of parish development as a reference in making decisions in the future so that services in the parish Santa Maria Assumpta Kupang has become more effective and efficient.
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